Using Past Performance To Predict Super Bowl 58 Winners

Super Bowl trends can be overrated. The problem with relying on Super Bowl trends is that often the two teams that meet in the Lombardi Trophy game, much like the two that meet in the World Series, are unfamiliar with one another. But it is possible to see trends. Check out the trend analysis for three periods from 2004 to 2023. Then, see our conclusion regarding this season’s Super Bowl 58 winner against the spread.

A Look into Past Super Bowl Betting Trends

Who is going to win the #SuperBowl? #SBLVIII #FTTB #ChiefsKingdom

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History of Super Bowl ATS betting from 2004 to 2010

In 2004, the Patriots were favored by 7 against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers covered the 7. The Eagles covered the +7 in the next year, 2005, versus the Patriots.

Then in 2006, the favored Steelers covered as a -4 chalk versus the Seahawks. The Colts covered in 2007 against the Bears, but the next season, the dog, the Giants, upset the Patriots straight up as a +12 underdog.

The dog covered in 2009 when the Cards kept it close versus the Steelers. The Saints were at +5 versus the Colts when Drew Brees beat Peyton Manning.

ATS Tally: Dogs 5-2

History of Super Bowl ATS betting from 2011 to 2015

In 2011, the Packers covered -3 versus the Steelers as a favorite. The next year, the Giants beat the Patriots straight up as a +2.5 underdog.

The Ravens beat San Francisco straight up as a +4.5 dog. The Seahawks blasted the Broncos in 2014 as a +2.5 underdog. In 2015, the game was a pick between the Seahawks and Patriots that went to Tom Brady and the Pats.

ATS Tally: Dogs 3-1-1

History of Super Bowl ATS betting from 2016 to 2023

2016 was a key Super Bowl because in the Panthers versus Broncos matchup, the public and sharps were on the opposites side. Early on, the public pounded the Panthers to -6.

But the late money was on Denver. At the end, Denver beat Carolina straight up and covered as a +5 dog.

Tom Brady rallied the New England Patriots in the fourth quarter to get by the Atlanta Falcons and cover as a -3 chalk in 2017. The next year, the Eagles covered as a +4 underdog versus the Pats.

In 2019, the Pats covered as a -2.5 favorite in one of the most boring Super Bowls of all time versus the Rams. The Chiefs covered as -1.5 faves versus the Niners in Super Bowl 2020.

In 2021, Brady and the Buccaneers beat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs as a +3 underdog. 2022 saw the Bengals cover the +4.5 against the Rams even though Cincinnati lost straight up. Last year, the Chiefs beat the Eagles as a +1.5 underdog.

ATS Tally: Dogs 5-3

Super Bowl 58 Expert Prediction

Since 2004, underdogs are 13-6-1 against Super Bowl spreads, including going 3-0 in the last 3 Super Bowls. Right now, the underdog are the Kansas City Chiefs. So if you like the SB dog trends, back the Chiefs.

If you believe the trend breaks, go with the 49ers. SB chalk has won SU but not much ATS and the line isn’t that large.

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