How Do You Bet on a Winning Team
In the United States, betting for or against the spread is the most popular online sports betting option. Making successful ATS wagers require an understanding of spread lines, the sport, and the teams involved.
Keep reading for a checklist that you can use to make winning bets. Following the list won’t always lead to victory, but it will help you cut down on losing bets.
How to Handicap Spread Lines and Make Winning Bets
Start by considering value
Value is often overused. But when it comes to betting money for or against the spread, it’s understated.
Oddsmakers often set a line based on where they believe the public will go. So if the oddsmakers feel the public will back Kansas City to win the Super Bowl, KC might be a -3 favorite.
The line means that if you back Kansas City at -3, KC must win the game by more than 3 points for you to win your bet. If Kansas City wins the game by 2 points, you lose your bet. If Kansas City wins by exactly 3, your bet pushes, which means you get back your initial investment.
What exactly is value in sports betting?
Value means that you are getting a deal. So if you believe Kansas City should be -5 or -6 favorites and the line is -3, the line on KC represents value. You are getting a deal at -3 when KC should be -6 favorites.
If it’s opposite, KC is -6 but should be no more than -3, the line represents zero value. You are getting a bad deal because the line on KC should be -3, not -6.
How to determine if the line in the game you want to bet offers value
Now that we know what value means and why it’s important, it’s time to discover how we find value plays. Most sports betting handicappers do the following already, but just in case your new to handicapping, check it out.
Look for relevant trends
Some trends are meaningful. Others aren’t. Check out a trend that can lead to winning bets. Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home.
We italicized the words at home because they’re the most meaningful words in the trend. 8-1 ATS is great, but it’s only great because the game is happening at home.
An important note about trend analysis: trends don’t always last. So in the above trend you must combine stats analysis, and your own intuition to determine value.
Look for meaningful stats
Stats are meaningful or not in relation to other stats. For example, let’s say you’re handicapping a football game and one team averages 135 rushing yards per game. The opposing team allows an average of 150 rushing yards per game.
The stats for both teams should automatically point you towards backing the squad that averages 135 rushing yards each contest.
But if the opposing team allows 95 rushing yards per game, you must use other stats, and trends to determine which team to back.
Trend and stat analysis in action
Once you’ve figured out which team to back against the spread, you must now determine if the line provides value. Let’s keep with our current example.
The team you wish to back averages 135 rushing yards per game and faces a team that allows 150 rushing yards per game. The team you are considering backing is 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games at home and today’s game happens at home.
So far, so good. But what if the opposing team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 on the road? Okay. What is the spread?
If the spread is -6 on the team you like, it’s probably a decent bet because the team you like will control the clock with their rushing attack. But if the team you like is more than -6, say, -7 or -7.5, you have to dig deeper before deciding if the line represents value.
Follow the money method
Another method to find winning plays is to look to see where the money is going and then either go with the money or go opposite the money.
The key to utilizing this method is to see if the line has had a significant change. The best example of a significant line change happened in the 2016 Super Bowl.
Shortly after setting the line, sportsbooks saw major action on Carolina. The Panthers were -6 at one point.
Pro handicappers got involved and the line fell to -3. Non-pro players believed they saw value in the line on the Panthers and bet Carolina down to -5.
Denver won the game outright, which means the pros had it right. Knowing when to follow the money or not follow the money is a skill that novice handicappers will develop over time.
Follow this list to find more winning against the spread bets
Check out a short list of things to consider that will help you find and make more winning bets.
- Find relevant trends
- Find meaningful stats
- Check out where the money is going
- Use your handicapping skills and intuition
- Determine if the team you wish to back offers value
Keep this blog handy, so you can go step-by-step. Again, you won’t win every one of your spread line bets, but you will for sure cut the chances of making bad bets.
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READ MORE: How to Bet on Losing Teams
