2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 NASCAR Odds, Preview, and Prediction

By Hank Blaine • August 20, 2021

It’s the penultimate race of the NASCAR Cup Series’ regular season Sunday as the circuit visits Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 400. Kyle Larson is the clear-cut betting favorite on the NASCAR odds.Be sure to check out for NASCAR betting odds and lines at our online Bitcoin sportsbook.

2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Info

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— Michigan International Speedway (@MISpeedway) August 19, 2021

When: Sunday, August 22nd, 1 PM ET
Where: Michigan International Speedway, Brooklyn, Michigan
TV: NBC Sports Network
Radio: MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Live Stream: NBCSports.com

Michigan International Speedway Track Facts

Number of previous races: 103.
First Cup race: June 15, 1969, won by Cale Yarborough.
Last Cup race: August 9, 2020, won by Kevin Harvick.
Won from pole: 21, last time by Joey Logano in 2019.
Won from top-5 starting position: 61 times in 103 races (59%).
Won from top-10 starting position: 77 times (75%).
Won from 21st or worse starting position: 7 times (7%).
Worst starting spot for race winner: 32nd, by Mark Martin in 2009.
Most laps led: 163, by Joey Logano in 2019.
Fewest laps led by a race winner: 1, by Mark Martin in 2009.
Fastest race: 173.997 mph by Dale Jarrett in 1999.
Fastest qualifying speed: 206.558 mph by Jeff Gordon in 201.
Most lead changes: 65 in 1981.
Closest finish: Jeff Gordon’s .085 second margin over Ricky Rudd in 2001.
Most caution flags: 10 in 2006.

From 2016-2020 a typical Michigan race had 14.3 lead changes, 6.9 cautions for 31.8 laps, and an average green-flag run of 19.5 laps.

Odds to Win the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400

Kyle Larson +300
Chase Elliot +650
Denny Hamlin +800
Martin Truex Jr. +800
Kevin Harvick +800
Kyle Busch +800
Joey Logano +900
Brad Keselowski +1200
William Byron +1200
Alex Bowman +1600
Ryan Blaney +1600
Christopher Bell +2500
Kurt Busch +2800
Austin Dillon +5000
Tyler Reddick +6600
Ross Chastain +8000
Matt Dibenedetto +10000
Chase Briscoe +10000
Aric Almirola +12500
Chris Buescher +15000
Ryan Newman +15000
Daniel Suarez +15000
Cole Custer +20000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +20000
Bubba Wallace +20000
Erik Jones +25000
Ryan Preece +25000
Michael McDowell +40000
Justin Haley +75000
Corey LaJoie +150000
Anthony Alfredo +250000
Cody Ware +250000
Quin Houff +300000
Josh Bilicki +300000
Garrett Smithley +400000
B.J. McLeod +400000
James Davison +400000

Track Info

Michigan International Speedway is a 2-mile track so it will be a 400-lap race unless overtime is needed. Cale Yarbrough owns the most wins in this race, which dates to 1969, with six and three teams have won it six times. A Ford has won the race a record 20 times.

Who Has the Better Odds to Win the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400

The defending race champion is Kevin Harvick and he’s +900 to repeat. The 2020 event was pushed back about a month in the schedule and shortened to 312 miles due to the COVID pandemic even though it was still called the FireKeepers Casino 400.

The 2020 event was a clean race until the final stage, when several cautions forced Harvick to navigate some tricky restarts. There was a brief red flag at one point for track cleaning. The race went to overtime after Christopher Bell made contact with Austin Dillon to bring out the final caution.

Harvick dominated much of the race — winning each of the first two stages and leading 92 of the race’s 160 laps — and held off a late challenge by Brad Keselowski in overtime to claim the checkered flag, edging Keselowski by 0.284 seconds.

Harvick now has four victories at Michigan, including three in the past three years. He has been a big part of what is now a five-race winning streak for Ford at the Cup level at MIS. Keselowski was denied again in his home state. He has never won a Cup race at Michigan. Keselowski is +1400 this week.

Kyle Larson has won the Busch Pole Award for Sunday’s race. Larson, the series points leader, will start his No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet from the top spot for the fifth time this season. He is a five-time winner this year and a three-time winner at the 2-mile Michigan track in his Cup Series career. No surprise, then, that he’s the +275 favorite.

Larson can clinch the regular-season points title on Sunday. He has opened up his points lead over Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin by 22 points. Larson needs to be at least 61 points ahead of the driver ranked second in the regular-season driver standings at the conclusion of the race at Michigan.

Hamlin (+1000) has made 30 series starts at Michigan putting up two wins (2010, 2011), nine top fives and 15 top 10s. His average finish is 13.1 — sixth-best among active drivers.

Chase Elliott is +800. Elliott began his Michigan career with three consecutive second-place finishes in 2016 and 2017. In his second race on this track that season, Elliott finished eighth, and while he has not yet cracked the top five again, six of his last seven efforts at Michigan ended in results of seventh through ninth. Elliott holds the best all-time average finish (7.7) of drivers with more than two starts at Michigan. His nine top-10 finishes at the 2-mile venue are more than his total top-10s at any other track. Elliott has matched most runner-up finishes at Michigan before first win there. He’s tied with Jeff Gordon, Terry Labonte and Martin Truex Jr. at three second-place results.

Truex is +750 this week and he has finished in the top five in four straight Michigan races. However, since winning his third and most recent race at Darlington Raceway earlier this season, he has only one other top-five on an oval – a third at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

The following 14 drivers have clinched a spot in the 16-driver postseason field: Larson, Hamlin, Kyle Busch, William Byron, Elliott, Joey Logano, Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney, Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Kurt Busch, Christopher Bell, Michael McDowell and Aric Almirola.

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