2021 NFL Week 11 Preview, Odds and Picks
There will be one game in NFL Week 11 that will feature two new starting quarterbacks from their teams’ previous game: Miami at the New York Jets. Tua Tagovailoa is healthy enough to return as Miami’s starter and in a surprise, Joe Flacco starts for the Jets. Not a great matchup overall. Here’s a quick look at two better NFL Week 11 games with picks and NFL odds.
Top 2021 NFL Week 11 Betting Picks
READ MORE: 2021 NFL Week 10 Recap
Sunday, Nov. 21
Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears
- 2021 NFL Week 11 Odds: Baltimore Ravens -5
It’s a 1 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS. Chicago comes off its bye week on a four-game skid but feeling good about Justin Fields in his excellent Week 9 performance in a last-second loss in Pittsburgh. In their last four games, the Bears are averaging 5.09 yards per carry, and Fields has been a big part of that. He’s averaging 7.15 yards per carry over those four games; that is a pace better than Lamar Jackson’s MVP season from 2019. Fields has averaged at least 10 air yards per attempt in three of his last four games and is completing 64 percent in that span.
Speaking of Jackson, he did not practice Wednesday due to an illness, but it’s not COVID. It was third time Jackson has missed practice with an illness this season. He also missed time with a back injury, but he has not missed any games and the Ravens won each week that included a Jackson absence.
While the Bears have never faced Jackson in the regular season, he actually made his NFL debut against them in the 2018 Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio, completing 4 of 10 passes for 33 yards and one touchdown and rushing for 25 yards on eight carries.
Jackson will face his 28th regular-season team in this one. He is 25-2 when facing a team for the first time (2018-21, including the postseason). Only the Chiefs in the 2018 regular season and the Titans in the 2019 playoffs earned wins over Jackson in their first meetings.
Chicago looks to end an unusual trend: It has lost and failed to cover its past seven games out of a bye week. The two big injury questions for the Bears are No. 1 wideout Allen Robinson and star pass-rusher Khalil Mack. Both likely will be listed as questionable. Mack hasn’t played since the Bears’ loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Oct. 24. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to return to the field soon or whether the Bears will move him to injured reserve. Robinson has been banged up all season but played. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their past five at home vs. teams with a winning record.
NFL Week 11 Pick: Ravens
Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- 2021 NFL Week 11 Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
The marquee matchup of the week at 4:25 PM ET and a possible Super Bowl 56 preview. The Cowboys lead the NFL in both total yards per game (433.9) and points scored per game (31.6). The last time Dallas finished a season leading the league in both categories was 1971, when the Cowboys won Super Bowl VI. The Chiefs’ offense ranks fourth in the NFL in total yards per game (405.6). It will mark the sixth-most combined total yards per game between opposing teams in a matchup entering Week 11 or later since 1950.
Kansas City star quarterback Patrick Mahomes grew up not far from Dallas and meets the Cowboys for the first time – the only other NFL club he hasn’t faced is Minnesota. Mahomes, who was born in Tyler, Texas, spent his early years cheering for Tony Romo and the Cowboys as a die-hard fan.
Mahomes had been struggling a bit but torched the Raiders in Week 10, passing for 406 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions, compiling a 127.6 rating in the Chiefs’ win. It was Mahomes’ third career game with 400 passing yards and five passing TD. That tied Peyton Manning, Dan Marino and Joe Montana for the most such games in NFL history. Mahomes became the first player in NFL history to reach three career games of 400-plus yards passing and five-or-more touchdown passes in his first five NFL seasons.
The Cowboys trashed the Falcons in Week 10 by a score of 43-3. It was the first time the Cowboys had beaten a team by over 40 points since 2000, when they defeated the Arizona Cardinals 48-7. After Atlanta kicked a field goal in the first quarter to make the score 7-3, Dallas exploded for 36-unanswered points to end the game, 29 of them coming in the second quarter.
Dak Prescott passed for 296 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions for a 127.9 rating and added a rushing touchdown. Prescott has 17 career games with both a passing and rushing touchdown, the fourth-most such games by a quarterback in his first six seasons in NFL history.
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its past five as a dog. Kansas City is 1-10 ATS in its past 11 at home.
NFL Week 11 Pick: Cowboys
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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.