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2023 NFL Odds for Passing Yards, Rushing & Receiving

By Hank Blaine

Reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes is the +400 chalk to lead the NFL in passing yards. The Chargers Justin Herbert and Bengals Joe Burrow are second and third choice. When it comes to rushing, Nick Chubb is the favorite to lead the league in yards. Most expect Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson to be the top receiver in yards this season. Check out NFL odds for passing yards, rushing, and receiving, analysis, and picks.

2023 NFL Passing Leader Odds

Last update on July 25th, 2023
  • Kansas City – Patrick Mahomes +400
  • Chargers – Justin Herbert +700
  • Cincinnati – Joe Burrow +750
  • Minnesota – Kirk Cousins +1100
  • Miami – Tua Tagovailoa +1400
  • Jacksonville – Trevor Lawrence +1600
  • Dallas – Dak Prescott +2000
  • Las Vegas – Jimmy Garoppolo +2500
  • Detroit – Jared Goff +2500
  • New Orleans – Derek Carr +2800
  • Jets – Aaron Rodgers +2800

Top Pick to win the 2023 NFL Passing Yards Leader

No doubt, Magic Mahomes can lead the league in passing yards. But Patrick’s odds makes him an underlay. Justin Herbert’s odds may make him an overlay. Running back Austin Ekeler is one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league.

So not only can Herbert throw to his receivers, he can get the ball to Ekeler. At the odds, Herbert is worth a look.

Second Pick to win the 2023 NFL Passing Yards Leader

Patrick Mahomes would be our top pick if not for the low 4-to-1 odds. Also, the Chiefs have a new left tackle in Donavon Smith.

Smith is a downgrade from Orlando Brown Jr. So there’s reason to believe the Chiefs try and protect the Magic One during the season by rushing the ball more. If that happens, Mahomes won’t lead the league in passing yards.

Third Pick to win the 2023 NFL Passing Yards Leader

Mike McDaniel has worked with Tua to prevent the concussions that Tagovailoa suffered last season. If Tua stays healthy, he will have a great shot of leading the league in passing yards.

The Miami receivers room is ridiculous, McDaniel is a fantastic play-caller, and Tagovailoa has the skills to be one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. Things appear to be aligning. Note, though, that one more concussion and Tua’s NFL career is likely over.

Top Underdog to win the 2023 NFL Passing Yards Leader

Goff offers overlay odds to lead the league in passing yards. Jahmyr Gibbs, who the so-called NFL experts derided as a bad first round pick, has incredible hands.

The Lions drafted Gibbs to ensure Goff had a viable outlet receiver. Detroit will devise plans around Gibbs in the passing game. At 25-to-1, Goff is a great pick to lead the league in passing yards.

2023 NFL Rushing Yards Leader Odds

Last update on July 25th, 2023
  • Cleveland – Nick Chubb +700
  • Indianapolis – Jonathan Taylor +750
  • Tennessee – Derrick Henry +900
  • Atlanta – Bijan Robinson +1200
  • Las Vegas – Josh Jacobs +1400
  • Giants – Saquon Barkley +1600
  • Dallas – Tony Pollard +1800
  • New England – Rhamondre Stevenson +2200
  • Pittsburgh – Najee Harris +2500
  • Minnesota – Alexander Mattison +2500
  • San Francisco – Christian McCaffrey +2500
  • Seattle – Kenneth Walker +2500

Top Pick to win the 2023 NFL Rushing Yards Leader

Atlanta ranked third in rushing yards per game last season. The ATL didn’t draft BijanRobinson eighth in the first round not give him the ball. All systems are go. So the 12-to-1 odds makes Bijan an overlay.

Second Pick to win the 2023 NFL Rushing Leader

Nick Chubb could, for sure, lead the league in rushing yards. However, he’s tough to endorse as the top pick because Deshaun Watson will play in every game this season. The Browns gave Watson a massive contract, which means they expect Deshaun to throw the ball.

Third Pick to win the 2023 NFL Rushing Leader

Jonathan Taylor had a mediocre 2022. We’d make him the top pick, but running backs don’t always bounce back after tough seasons. More importantly, the Colts offensive line may not be as solid in 2023 as it has been in the past.

We could be wrong, though. So if you have faith in JT, go for it.

Top Underdog to win the 2023 NFL Rushing Leader

At 18-to-1, the Cowboys top running back could surprise. Tony Pollard mustn’t play, at least for now, sharing carries with Ezekiel Elliott.

Coach Mike McCarthy believes in the rushing attack. He will give Pollard plenty of carries and Tony has the speed to go to the house at any time.

2023 NFL Receiving Yards Leader Odds

Last update on July 25th, 2023
  • Minnesota – Justin Jefferson +600
  • Cincinnati – Ja’Marr Chase +750
  • Miami – Tyreek Hill +1000
  • Rams – Cooper Kupp +1200
  • Las Vegas – Davante Adams +1600
  • Philadelphia – A.J. Brown +1600
  • Buffalo – Stefon Diggs +1800
  • Dallas – CeeDee Lamb +2000
  • Miami – Jaylen Waddle +2000
  • Jets – Garrett Wilson +2000
  • Kansas City – Travis Kelce +2800
  • New Orleans – Chris Olave +3000
  • Detroit – Amon-Ra St. Brown +3000

Top Pick to win the 2023 NFL Receiving Yards Leader

The Bengals signed Orlando Brown Jr., one of the top left tackles in the game, to protect Joe Burrow. With more time, Joe Cool will find his top target, fellow LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase. The odds make Chase a much better candidate to lead the league in receiving than the chalk, Justin Jefferson.

Second Pick to win the 2023 NFL Receiving Leader

Hill had faced a suspension. But as of 20 hours ago, Tyreek reached a settlement regarding an incident that happened in a marina.

In any case, Tyreek believes he will break the 2,000 receiving yards mark in 2023. He could, which is why we choose him second. WR2 Jaylen Waddle requires attention, which should free up Hill.

Third Pick to win the 2023 NFL Receiving Leader

Justin Jefferson is great, but Minnesota may have a down season. Also, we don’t have a ton of faith in his quarterback, Kirk Cousins.

In addition, JJ plays with a rookie WR2 in Jordan Addison this season. All of it adds up to us choosing Jefferson third.

Top Underdog to win the 2023 NFL Receiving Leader

Aaron Rodgers will find a way to get the ball to one of the top young receivers in the league, second year player Garrett Wilson. Wilson produced 1,103 receiving yards playing with mediocre passers last season.

What do you think Garrett will accomplish with AR throwing him the ball? Wilson is going to have a fantastic season. At 20-to-1 odds, he’s worth backing for sure.

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