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2024 MLB Cy Young Odds & Predictions

By Hank Blaine

A lot of star pitchers changed teams during the MLB offseason, which is why player like Corbin Burnes, the former Milwaukee Brewer, is the favorite at +800 to win the American League Cy. Spencer Strider, who was close to winning the Cy Young in the NL in 2023, is this year’s favorite. Which pitchers among the chalk is the better play in the NL and AL? Who are the smart and underdog plays to win the Cy Young in the respective leagues? Check out Cy Young MLB odds, analysis, and picks.

A Look into the Top Players to Win the 2024 MLB Cy Young Award

American League

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AL Favorites

The American League boasts three players offering odds below +1000. Among the three, Pablo Lopez is the pick.

Before getting into why, Corbin Burnes has a slight edge because he changes leagues. However, that doesn’t always work out in the pitchers’ favor. Burnes doesn’t know the AL batters just as much as the batters don’t know Burnes.

Luis Castillo went 14-9 with a 3.34 ERA and struck out 219. Castill has a shot to win the award as well, but Castillo plays for the Mariner, which means he’ll face the Stros and Rangers a lot in 2024.

Lopez throws in the horrid AL Central where his team, the Minnesota Twins, will be the top dog for sure. Pablo struck out 234 while posting a 3.66 ERA. With Gerrit Cole sidelined for at least a month and probably longer, Lopez becomes the man to beat for the AL Cy Young.

AL Smart Pick

The Minnesota Twins will dominate the AL Central unless Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers take a massive forward step. Skubal, though, can’t do it alone, which is why Tarik could pull a Gerrit Cole from 2023, win the Cy even though his team doesn’t perform great.

Skubal went 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA and struck out 107 in 80.1 innings. Those are amazing stats for 80 innings. If Skubal gets more work, and he will because the Tigers have to give him more work, he could win the Cy Young.

AL Underdog Play

Rodriguez had a decent rookie season: 7-4, 4.35 ERA, and 129 strikeouts. There’s a big chance Grayson improves across the board.

Not only that, but Coribn Burnes is the ace in Baltimore. So the pressure will be off Rodriguez. He could end up posting better stats than Burnes. So at the odds, Rodriguez is worth a look.

National League

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NL Favorites

Wheeler is solid. Strider is a beast. Spencer went 20-5 last season. He should produce another 20 win season. The key for Strider to win the award is his ERA.

Spencer must lower it below 3.86. If he can get it to sub-3.50, it will probably be enough. The issue appears to be that Strider is always aggressive. He struck out 281, which is crazy, but you can’t go after every batter in every lineup all the time. If Strider looks to get batters to hit for easy outs instead of always looking for the K, he’ll pocket the Cy Young.

NL Smart Pick

Gallen had good enough stats to win the Cy Young last season. The ace for the 2023 National League Champion Arizona Diamondbacks, Gallen struck out 220 and posted a 3.47 ERA.

Blake Snell posted a 2.25 ERA, which is why Snell beat both Gallen and Strider. The odds make Gallen a decent play to win the award in 2024, though, because he’s got back up in Merril Kelley and Brandon Pfaadt.

NL Underdog Play

The player from Lucedale, Mississippi could take a massive forward step in 2024. Steele went a great 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA and a struck out 176.

If Steele can boost the strikeouts to close to close to 200 or exceed 200, lower the ERA to below 3.00, and win a couple more games, he will be in the running for the NL Cy Young. The Chicago Cubs player has the look of a decent underdog to win the Cy in 2024.

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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.

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