7 Things to Know Before Betting the 2022 March Madness Final Four
The annual NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament Final Four takes place on Saturday, April 2. The winners of the two semifinal games then battle each other on Monday night for the right to call themselves NCAA College Basketball Champions. This year’s Final Four takes place at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Check out 7 things you must know before betting the Final Four.
7 Things to Know Before Betting the 2022 March Madness Final Four
READ MORE: Villanova Wildcats 2022 March Madness Final Four Betting Keys
Top seeds often perform well in the Final Four
Underdog seeds may play well in the first couple of rounds, the Sweet 16, and even the Elite Eight, but when it comes to the Final Four, don’t kid yourself. Top seeds always rule. A 1-seed has won the championship every year since 2016, when 2-seed Villanova took the title. Cinderella’s glass slipper cracks in the Final Four. Keep that in mind when handicapping Saturday’s games.
Teams with Final Four “pedigree” almost always win
Coach K and the Duke Blue Devils are on their way to a record 13 th Final Four. Before the tournament started, more money landed on the Blue Devils to win the title than on any other team. The reason? Future bettors know teams with Final Four pedigree, like Duke and Villanova, end up winning the tournament.
If a team spends too much energy in their Final Four semifinal game, they tend to implode on Monday night
It’s tough to win any tournament game. It’s especially tough to win a Final Four game. So if a team looks awesome, if they shoot lights out on Saturday, expect them to struggle on Monday night. That’s doesn’t mean the team that plays best on Saturday will lose in the championship game. It does mean basketball handicappers should expect a bounce performance. Now, the performance still might be good enough to win the title, but it may not be good enough to cover the spread.
The championship game tends to always be a letdown compared to the semifinals
There’s so much interest in the Final Four that fans, teams, players, and gamblers suffer a letdown in the championship contest. Why does this happen? One reason is because teams fight so hard to get to the Final Four. Winning your region is such a big deal and being at the Final Four is such a big thing that if you beat your semifinal opponent, you end up suffering an emotional letdown on Monday night.
Gonzaga suffered such a let down versus Baylor in last year’s NCAA Championship game. The Zags required overtime to beat UCLA at last year’s Final Four. They had nothing emotionally versus the Bears.
Playing in a dome can upset top shooters
It’s tough to shoot in a dome. This has been true since the first Final Fours at the Carrier Dome, the home of the Syracuse Orange. Not all shooters suffer playing in a dome. But a dome is different than a traditional arena. So the key is to find history regarding shooters that have played in domes and see how well they’ve shot the rock.
Beware the Elite Eight bounce
Arkansas and Houston bounced in the Elite Eight after their Sweet 16 wins, which is understandable because Arkansas upset 1-seed Gonzaga and Houston upset 1-seed Arizona. A couple of Elite Eight winners, like Arkansas and Houston after their big Sweet 16 victories, will suffer letdowns. Which teams will suffer an Elite Eight bounce? Make sure to handicap all four teams. The more emotional and physical the Elite Eight victory, the better chances the team has of bouncing with a bad Final Four performance.
Teams that rely too much on emotion don’t perform well in the Final Four
This isn’t as obvious as one might think. All teams play with some emotion. But the most workmanlike teams almost always win the Final Four. Think Baylor’s precision passing and superior defensive strategy versus the Zags relying on Jalen Suggs, Corey Kispert, and Drew Timme in last year’s final.
Or think a couple of seasons ago when Chris Beard’s underdog Texas Tech Red Raiders team played with high emotion versus Tony Bennett’s cool and collected Virginia Cavaliers squad. Emotion can carry you far. But the team with the best strategy and the one that executes the best wins in the Final Four, which is why Baylor handled the Zags and the Cavaliers bet the Red Raiders.
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