Colts vs. Patriots 2023 NFL Week 10 Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine • November 9, 2023

One of the AFC’s best rivalries happens on Sunday in Frankfurt, Germany when the Indianapolis Colts clash with the New England Patriots. Although Gardner Minshew versus Mac Jones isn’t the same as Peyton Manning against Tom Brady, the game should be as competitive as any matchup in NFL Week 10. Will the Patriots end a losing streak? Or will the Colts start a winning streak? Check out NFL odds, analysis, and a pick for this Sunday’s Germany game between Indianapolis and New England.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Game Information

Taking a long road trip. ✈️
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 8, 2023

When: Sunday, November 12th, 2023, 9:30 AM ET
Where: Frankfurt Stadium, Frankfurt
TV: NFL Network
Radio: WFNI 107.5 FM (Colts) // 98.5 The Sports Hub (Patriots)
Live Stream: NFL+
NFL Odds: Colts (-1.5) // Patriots (+1.5)

Why Bet on the Indianapolis Colts?

The Colts don’t have a great defense. Indianapolis allows 360.6 yards per game, ranking twenty- sixth in the NFL. Opponents average close to 27 points each time the Colts step onto the field.

The 27 points per ranks twenty-eighth in the league. But although Indianapolis gives up a lot of yards and a lot of points, the defense excels at perhaps the most important defensive football stat, takeaways.

The Indy D ranks seventh in the league in takeaways. The Colts have forced and recovered fumbles and intercepted the ball a total of 14 times in 9 games.

One of the reasons the Colts went with Gardner Minshew to back up rookie Anthony Richardson is because Minshew is a veteran who doesn’t often make mistakes. Minshew has thrown 8 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. The 5 picks don’t look good, but 3 of them came in a single game, a 37-20 loss versus one of the top teams in the league, the Jacksonville Jaguars.

In addition to Minshew, the Indianapolis offense boasts one of the league’s best rushing attacks. Indy averages 123.3 rushing yards per game. Both Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor can dominate on the ground.

Why Bet on the New England Patriots?

The Patriots’ defense has not lived up to the preseason billing. The D was supposed to be the team’s strength. But New England has allowed 20 or more points in 8-of-9 games. The good news for New England in this game is that corner Jonathan Jones, the Patriots best at that position, is back. Jones should find success against Gardner Minshew and the Colts’ passing attack.

The Patriots allow just 100.8 rushing yads per game. So New England’s D could have a decent game against Taylor and Moss.

New England’s offense was supposed to be improved from last season. So far, improvement hasn’t arrived.

The Patriots average 15 points per game, ranking thirty-first in the league. Mac Jones has thrown 9 picks to 10 touchdowns. Jones hasn’t had a good season.

It’s not all Mac’s fault. The Patriots only rush for 87 yards per game, ranking twenty-eigth in the NFL. If the Pats can’t rush the ball, Jones struggles in the passing game.

Colts vs. Patriots Betting Trends

Indianapolis is 8-12 ATS in their last 20 games.
The Colts are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games.
The totals went over in 11 of Indianapolis’ last 15 games.
New England is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games.
The Patriots are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.
The totals went under in 6 of New England’s last 8 games.

Colts vs. Patriots Expert Betting Predictions

The line has fallen from Colts -2.5 to Colts -1.5 and then on the Wednesday before Sunday’s game, the line fell to Colts -1. The reason for the fall is because most can’t believe New England is this bad.

But the Patriots’ issues aren’t just on one side of the ball. New England is struggling to keep teams from moving and scoring while the Pats’ offense is a mess.

The Colts force turnovers and that’s bad news for New England fans. The Patriots rank twenty-fourth in turnovers. Jones should be good for at least 1 pick, which is the reason the Colts are the play to get the win in Frankfurt.

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*All stated odds are subject to change without prior notice.