Cowboys vs. Commanders 2023 NFL Week 18 Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine • January 3, 2024

NFL Week 17 changed things big time. Heading into their game versus the Detroit Lions, the Cowboys were an underdog to win the NFC East. But after the Eagles fell to the Cardinals and Dallas beat the Lions, the Cowboys are a -1400 choice to win their division. All Dallas must do is beat the hapless rival Washington Commanders to score the division victory. See below for NFL odds, analysis, and a free pick for Dallas at Washington.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Game Information

Sunday, come sooner ⭐️ #DALvsWAS pic.twitter.com/SfffTRPWC3
— Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders (@DCCheerleaders) January 2, 2024

When: Sunday, January 7th, 2024. 4:25pm EST.
Where: FedExField, Landover, MD
TV: FOX
Radio: KMVK 107.5 FM (Cowboys) // Big 100.3 FM (Commanders)
Live Stream: NFL+
NFL Odds: Cowboys (-13) // Commanders (+13)

Why Bet on the Dallas Cowboys?

Although the Cowboys defense has had moments where they looked like the football version of the Keystone Cops, for the most part, Dallas’ D has stood tall this season.

The Cowboys gave up just 19 points in the 20-19 win over NFC North champ Detroit. The win broke a 2-game losing streak where Dallas gave up 22 points to Miami and 31 to Buffalo.

Micah Parsons has 13 sacks this season. If Washington doesn’t block Parsons, he will cause havoc in the backfield all afternoon.

Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb has become on of the best quarterback to wide receiver combinations in the NFL. Prescott has thrown for 4, 237 yards and 32 touchdowns to just 8 picks this season.

Lamb has caught 122 passes for 1,651 yards and has caught 10 TD throws this season. Lamb is making a case for NFL Offensive Player of the Year.

Prescott is making a case for NFL MVP. The one knock against the Cowboys is that the rushing attack must get better, and it must get better soon.

Why Bet on the Washington Commanders?

Since Washington traded away their defensive ends, Montez Sweat to the Bears and Chase Young to the San Francisco 49ers, the D.C. defense floundered.

Washington has lost 7 straight, and it’s mostly because the D can’t stop anybody from scoring. The Cowboys scored 45 in the first head-to-head. Even the Jets had a decent offensive showing versus the Commanders when scoring 30.

Washington started Jacoby Brissett against the San Francisco 49ers. Brissett got hurt and isn’t likely to start on Sunday.

Instead, the Commanders plan on handing Sam Howell the pigskin. Howell was the most sacked quarterback in the NFL up until his benching. So whether Howell or Brissett starts, it won’t matter.

Versus the Dallas pass rush, Washington’s QB will struggle.

Cowboys vs. Commanders Betting Trends

Dallas is 6-2 SU in the last 8 games.
The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The totals went under in 4 of Dallas’ last 5 games.
Washington is 0-7 SU in the last 7 games.
The Commanders are 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
The totals went over in 5 of Washington’s last 7 games.

Cowboys vs. Commanders Expert Betting Predictions

Dallas desperately wants to win the division. It would be a massive confidence boost heading into the postseason. A win pockets the Cowboys the 2-seed in the playoffs.

So the Boys will be all out. The Commanders are likely to go through the motions like they’ve done in their previous 7 games. The fact Howell returns under center isn’t a good thing for D.C. or for Howell.

Brissett is a veteran. So he won’t force anything. Instead, he will either try to run and gain positive yardage once Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence bears down on him, or he will throw the ball away or take the sack.

Howell will force the issues. So if Howell starts, expect at least 2 Dallas interceptions. When the Cowboys have the ball, Washington has almost zero shot of keeping the Cowboys from scoring touchdowns. Dallas rolls to a win and cover.

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*All stated odds are subject to change without prior notice.