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Dolphins vs. Chiefs 2024 NFL Wild Card Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine

Brutally cold weather is on tap for Kansas City on Saturday night as the AFC West champion Chiefs begin defense of their latest Super Bowl title on the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend by hosting the Miami Dolphins, with Kansas City as just more than a field goal favorite.

Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs 2024 NFL Wild Card Game Information

  • When: Saturday, January 13th, 2024. 8:00pm EST.
  • Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
  • TV: Peacock
  • Radio: 940 AM WINZ (Dolphins) // 106.5 The Wolf FM (Chiefs)
  • Live Stream: NFL+
  • NFL Odds: Dolphins (+4) // Chiefs (-4)

Why Bet on the Miami Dolphins?

The Miami Dolphins were in position to win the AFC East on Sunday night in Week 18 and host at least one playoff game but blew a 14-7 home lead to Buffalo and lost 21-14, giving the division title to the Bills. So instead of playing in very nice south Florida this time of year, the Dolphins head to Kansas City, where the projected low on Saturday night is minus-2 degrees.

Fins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, a Hawaii native, is 0-4 all-time in the NFL when the kickoff temperature is 45 degrees or colder. Miami has never won a playoff game with a kickoff temperature of 46 degrees or colder. The Dolphins have won two where that temperature was 47: 1971 in Kansas City and Super Bowl VIII against the Vikings in 1974 in Houston. The coldest temperature for a Dolphins home playoff win was 55 degrees on Dec. 23, 1973, in a win over Cincinnati. The Fins have lost 10 straight games overall with a kickoff temperature below 40, the longest active streak in the league.

Tua Tagovailoa wasn’t great Sunday in the loss to the Bills, completing 17 of 27 pass attempts for 173 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Tagovailoa has now thrown four picks over his last two games, matching his total thrown over his previous eight contests combined. He finished the 2023 regular season completing 69 percent of his passes for a league-leading 4,624 passing yards to go along with 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.

With starting running back Raheem Mostert out Sunday, rookie De’Von Achane rushed 10 times for 56 yards and a touchdown. Achane neared 1,000 combined yards from scrimmage (936) while scoring 10 total touchdowns despite spending a good portion of his 10 active games operating in a change-of pace role behind Mostert, who might play Saturday. Ditto starting wideout Jaylen Waddle, who has missed the past two.

A big story here is the return of All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill to Kansas City for the first time since the Chiefs traded him to Miami. Hill is in the Offensive Player of the Year discussion with 119 receptions for a league-leading 1,799 receiving yards while finishing in a tie with Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans with 13 receiving touchdowns.

The regular season finale for Miami was all too similar to the rest of the games this year against the NFL’s top teams. The Dolphins finished 1-5 vs. clubs with a winning record. Miami’s defense kept itself afloat after losing Jaelan Phillips to a torn Achilles but losing Bradley Chubb in Week 17 to a torn ACL may prove too difficult to overcome. In addition, starting linebacker Andrew Van Winkel left Sunday’s loss injured and is in question for this one. Miami did extend its league-leading streak of games with a takeaway to 11 Sunday, thanks to interceptions from Eli Apple and safety DeShon Elliott and a strip-sack by defensive tackle Christian Wilkins.

Why Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs?

Kansas City won the AFC West title yet again and rested most starters Sunday in a 13-12 win at the Chargers. KC won its 11th game of the season on Sunday, securing its sixth-consecutive campaign with at least 11 victories. That’s tied for the third-longest streak for any team since at least 1970.

While Patrick Mahomes didn’t play on Sunday, this was the worst Chiefs offense this season under him since Mahomes became the full-time starter in 2018. Kansas City led the NFL in dropped passes, often in crucial situations or leading to turnovers, and was among the leaders in offensive penalties and turnovers. There’s arguably no bigger reason they lost four of their past eight games.

The Chiefs have a defense that keeps them in games. Kansas City had the second-best scoring defense in the league, giving up 17.1 points per game and yielded 20 or fewer points on 13 occasions this season, which led the NFL. KC also finished with 57 total sacks, marking the second-most in franchise history. Only the 1990 Chiefs, who recorded 60 sacks, tallied more than this year’s group. Additionally, the Chiefs’ 57 sacks this season ranked second in the NFL behind only Baltimore (60). Fifteen players recorded at least a half sack for the Chiefs this season.

Kansas City beat Miami 21-14 in Frankfurt, Germany in Week 9. Mahomes had two TD passes and Bryan Cook returned a fumble 59 yards for a touchdown. All the Chiefs’ points came in the first half and both Miami TDs were in the third quarter. A potential Dolphins late rally fell short when Tagovailoa couldn’t handle a snap on fourth-and-10 from the Kansas City 31 with 1:03 to play.

This game will be the 14th consecutive home playoff game for the Chiefs since 2016. They haven’t faced Miami in the playoffs since the 1994 wild-card round, a game the Dolphins won 27-17.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Betting Trends

  • Miami is 13-7 ATS in the last 20 games.
  • The Dolphins are 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Kansas City.
  • The totals went over in 12 of Miami’s last 16 games on the road.
  • Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games when playing at home against Miami.
  • The Chiefs are 14-6 SU in its last 20 games.
  • The totals went under in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Expert Betting Predictions

Chiefs 23, Dolphins 17.

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*All stated odds are subject to change without prior notice.

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