Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – May 22nd, 2023
The Atlanta Braves lead the NL East on the back of MVP candidate Ronald Acuna, who is on pace to join Rickey Henderson and Willie Mays as the only players to lead their league (AL or NL) in both stolen bases and OPS in the same season since integration (1947). Here’s a look at two intriguing matchups around the majors early this week.
Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week (May 22nd, 2023)
To all the baseballs that found new homes today.
— MLB (@MLB) May 22, 2023
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San Francisco Giants vs. Minnesota Twins
- When: Monday, May 22, 2023, 7:40 PM ET
- Where: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
- TV: NBCSBA, BSNO, FS1
- Radio: KNBR-FM 104.5 FM (Giants) // 102.9 The Wolf (Twins)
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- MLB Betting Odds: Giants (+126) / Twins (-145)
This is the Carlos Correa Bowl of sorts. This offseason, the Giants signed Correa, an All-Star last year with Minnesota, to a big free-agent contract. Except there was concerning news during Correa’s physical. He didn’t end up signing the deal and instead agreed to a contract with the Mets. Only for the same issue to arise … so Correa went back to Minnesota and that franchise had no problems giving him the big extension. Correa has reached safely in each of his last 10 games for the Twins, posting a .413 on-base percentage in that span.
Since being recalled from Triple-A St. Paul on May 5, Alex Kirilloff has hit .350 with six walks, a .458 on-base percentage and an 1.033 OPS. The Twins have homered 62 times on the season, the third most in the AL and seventh most in baseball. A total of 52 of their home runs have come in their last 34 games since April 13, tied for fourth in baseball since that date.
Joey Gallo has a hard hit percentage of 60.6%, third best in baseball, trailing Matt Chapman (62.7%) and Aaron Judge (61.1%). Additionally, he ranks eighth in baseball in barrels-per-plate appearance percentage at 12.1% and ninth in average exit velocity at 93.7 mph. Gallo has a .976 OPS against right-handed pitching, compared to .642 vs. lefties.
It’s Bailey Ober (3-0, 1.78 ERA) on the mound Monday for Minnesota. He beat the Dodgers last Tuesday, going 6.0 innings and allowing one run on six hits, with one walk and six strikeouts. Ober is facing the Giants for the first time in his career, marking the 15th opponent he has faced since debuting in 2021. He is 2-2, 3.92 ERA (66.2 IP, 29 ER) with 15 walks and 66 strikeouts in 14 previous starts when facing a new opponent and 2-0, 3.46 ERA (26.0 IP, 10 ER) in five career Interleague starts.
Alex Cobb (3-1, 1.94) goes for the Giants. Cobb allowed two runs on five hits and five walks while striking out three over 3.1 innings in a no-decision versus the Phillies last Tuesday. In addition to his season-high five walks, he also had two wild pitches and a balk. Considering Cobb hadn’t allowed a run in three of his last four outings, it was an unusually poor effort. It’s also the third time in nine starts he’s failed to complete four innings, though he’s yet to give up more than three runs in any game.
MLB Betting Pick: Twins
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
- When: Tuesday, May 23, 2023, 7:20 PM ET
- Where: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
- TV: SNLA, BSSO, TBS
- Radio: AM 570 LA Sports (Dodgers) // 680 The Fan (Braves)
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- MLB Betting Odds: TBA
This is the most intriguing pitching matchup of the week as the Dodgers are calling up touted prospect Bobby Miller to oppose Braves ace Spencer Strider, the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up and an NL Cy Young favorite this year.
Miller, 24, is a 6-foot-5 righty and was the Dodgers’ first-round pick out of the University of Louisville in 2020. He pitched in High-A and Double-A in 2021 before Double-A and Triple-A last season. Miller was sidelined due to shoulder soreness at the start of the season but made his 2023 debut on April 29 with Triple-A Oklahoma City. In that game, he threw eight pitches at or over 100 mph.
In four starts for Triple-A Oklahoma City this year, Miller has a 5.65 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 12 strikeouts against six walks in 14 1/3 innings. Those numbers don’t look great but the Pacific Coast League, which Oklahoma City plays in, is very hitter friendly.
Injuries have created multiple holes in the Dodgers’ rotation right now. Dustin May and Julio Urías were both placed on the injured list within the last few days. Walker Buehler is recovering from Tommy John surgery, Michael Grove has a strained groin and Ryan Pepiot is still working back from an oblique injury.
Strider (4-2, 2.96) allowed four runs on six hits and three walks while striking out seven over five innings in a no-decision versus the Rangers last Wednesday. The seven strikeouts were a season low, and it was also the first start in which Strider’s allowed multiple home runs this season. The 24-year-old has a 2.96 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 86:18 K:BB across 51.2 innings. He’s been limited to five innings in three of his last four outings.
The Braves have scored 17 runs this season within the first 10 pitches of the game, most in the majors, and also lead the league in average (.416), on-base (.442), slugging (.820), OPS (1.262), hits (37) and home runs (9) in that span. Atlanta is on pace to score 130 first-inning runs this season. Atlanta is 27-9 (.750) when hitting at least one home run this season, the best record in the N.L.MLB Betting Pick: Braves
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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.READ MORE: Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – May 29th, 2023
