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Notre Dame vs. Duke 2023 College Football Week 5 Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine

No. 11 Notre Dame comes off a tough home loss to Ohio State, but the Irish still have a shot to reach the College Football Playoff as long as they don’t lose Saturday at No. 18 Duke in pseudo-ACC action. The Irish are required to play five ACC opponents per year in football but aren’t technically a member in that league in football.

ESPN College GameDay will be in Durham for the first time for a football game. Duke was among seven Power Five conference schools who had never been the host site for a football College GameDay since ESPN began broadcasting it from campus sites in 1993. The remaining six are California, Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Syracuse, and Virginia.

The Irish will roll into Durham, N.C., riding a 29-game regular season win streak against ACC schools. Notre Dame last faced Duke on Sept. 12, 2020, in South Bend. It won that game 27-13.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Duke Blue Devils Game Information

  • When: Saturday, September 30, 2023, 7:30 PM ET
  • Where: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC
  • TV: ABC
  • Radio: 97.3 ESPN (Notre Dame) // WDNC 620 AM (Duke)
  • Live Stream: WatchESPN
  • College Football Odds: Notre Dame (-6) // Duke (+6)

Why Bet on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish?

The Irish (4-1) lost 17-14 at home to No. 4 Ohio State on Saturday. The Irish took their first lead of the game 14-10 on a Sam Hartman two-yard touchdown pass to Rico Flores Jr. with 8:22 left. A clutch fourth-down stop by the Irish at their own 11-yard line gave the offense the ball back, but Ohio State forced a Notre Dame punt with 1:26 remaining. The Buckeyes then drove 65 yards in 15 plays earning the winning score with a one-yard touchdown run.

The Irish only had 10 players on the field for Ohio State’s game-winning goal line touchdown. Coach Marcus Freeman said he noticed it, but it was too late. Notre Dame didn’t have any timeouts left either: “Yeah, we were trying to get a fourth D-lineman on the field. I told him to just stay off, because we can’t afford a penalty — I didn’t have any timeouts. Right? So we couldn’t afford a penalty there. Yeah, it’s on us. We’ve gotta be better,” Freeman said.

The coaching miscue led to the first loss of the season for Notre Dame and its sixth straight defeat at the hands of Ohio State, a streak which began in 1995. The Buckeyes won their 24th consecutive regular-season game against non-Michigan opponents.

ND’s Hartman, who came into the game third nationally in quarterback efficiency, went 17 for 25 for 175 yards and a touchdown. Notre Dame mostly asked him not to make mistakes and he did that, though he also came up short on both fourth-and-1 keepers in Ohio State territory in the first half.

Notre Dame had chances to win this game, and not just at the end. The Irish were twice stopped on fourth-and-1 in Ohio State territory in the first half and also saw kicker Spencer Shrader miss a 47-yard boot wide left in the second quarter.

Why Bet on the Duke Blue Devils?

Duke (4-0) comes off a 41-7 blowout win over UConn. The Duke defense held Connecticut to just 203 total yards as senior Aeneas Peebles logged 2.5 tackles for loss and redshirt senior DeWayne Carter added a 26-yard fumble return for a touchdown. The Huskies’ lone score of the day came with 12 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter.

Blue Devils quarterback Riley Leonard finished the day 23-of-34 passing for 248 yards and one touchdown. Both his completions and yardage in the game marked season highs. Running back Jordan Waters scored twice on the ground and now has a team-leading seven rushing touchdowns on the year. The Blue Devils’ defense continued to shine as one of the top units in the nation with two fumble recoveries, including a touchdown.

Duke has begun the year with four consecutive 20-plus point wins for the first time in program history. The Blue Devils are now 10-2 when winning the turnover battle under head coach Mike Elko. The former Notre Dame defensive coordinator is 13-4 through his first 17 games with the Blue Devils, the best start for a head coach in program history.

The year prior to Elko taking over, the Blue Devils finished last in the ACC and 127th nationally in scoring defense (39.8). Last fall, Duke ranked fifth in the ACC and 31st nationally in scoring defense, limiting its opponents to just 22.1 points per game. After allowing just 35 points through its opening four games, Duke ranks fourth nationally and first in the ACC in scoring defense, allowing just 8.8 points per game.

Notre Dame vs. Duke Betting Trends

  • Notre Dame is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 games.
  • Fighting Irish are 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
  • The total went over in 10 of Notre Dame’s last 12 games.
  • Duke is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 games.
  • Blue Devils are 6-0 SU in its last 6 games.
  • The total went over in 4 of Duke’s last 5 games played on a Saturday.

Notre Dame vs. Duke Expert Betting Predictions

Notre Dame 24, Duke 20.

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