Padres vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Preview and Prediction – July 14, 2023

By Hank Blaine • July 11, 2023

The first game out of Major League Baseball’s All-Star break Friday has potential wild card ramifications in the National League as the San Diego Padres visit the Philadelphia Phillies – the only way either team is getting back to the playoffs is through a wild card because neither is winning its division.

Nitrobetting checks out the game in this preview. Get a complete look at the game information, team and player statistics, and the latest MLB odds. We also deliver timely betting trends and predictions that help you secure the best picks.

Padres vs. Phillies Game Information

That's a wrap from the pnW #AllStarGame pic.twitter.com/n4MgFHDyfQ
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) July 12, 2023

When: Friday, July 14, 2023, 6:05 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
TV: SDPA, NBCSP
Radio: 97.3 The Fan (Padres) // WIP-FM 94.1 (Phillies)
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Odds: Padres (+128) // Phillies (-152)

Why bet on the San Diego Padres?

The Padres are disappointments this year at 43-47 but do enter having won five of six. Manny Machado went 2-for-4 with two homers and five RBI in Sunday’s win over the Mets to conclude the first half. It was his second multi-homer game of the month, and he’s drilled six home runs in his last eight games. After entering June with an uncharacteristically bad .654 OPS, Machado is now slashing .261/.307/.458 with 15 home runs, 49 RBI and 41 runs across 319 plate appearances.

Shortstop Xander Bogaerts received a cortisone shot in his left wrist as planned after Sunday’s game. It was a planned injection for Bogaerts, who doesn’t anticipate needing another such cortisone shot the rest of the year. He was the team’s big free-agent acquisition last winter and is hitting .253 with 10 homers, 35 RBIs, 44 runs and nine steals.

It’s Yu Darvish on the hill Friday for San Diego. Darvish gave up three runs on seven hits and three walks while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision versus the Mets last Friday. A non-COVID-19 illness cost Darvish two starts, though he didn’t go on the injured list – Darvish said he did lose about seven pounds. The right-hander was a little off in terms of quality in his return to action, but he saw a full workload with 100 pitches (58 strikes) vs. New York. Darvish closed the first half with a 4.87 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 89:28 K:BB through 85 innings over 15 starts.

Darvish (2,760 rpm) has the second-highest spin rate on breaking balls among all NL pitchers since the start of last season behind Atlanta’s Charlie Morton (3,074 rpm). Darvish pitched twice in the 2022 NLCS vs. Philadelphia and allowed four runs over 13 innings and just seven hits but was 0-1.

Why bet on the Philadelphia Phillies?

The Phillies entered the break on a two-game skid to fall to 48-41. They had a 13-game road winning streak end Saturday. It was the longest in MLB this season and the longest since Atlanta won 13 straight on the road from July 29-Aug. 22, 2021.

Two-time NL MVP Harper was dealing with a minor elbow issue over the weekend but should be fine for Friday. The injury scare hasn’t deterred the Phillies from getting Harper some exposure to first base at some point during the second half of the season. He’s made all 56 of his starts to date as a designated hitter. Teammate and All-Star Nick Castellanos has already matched his total of 40 extra-base hits and 13 home runs from a season ago – he is one double shy of matching his total of 27 in 2022.

Lefty Cristopher Sanchez is likely to start Friday. Sanchez (0-2) did not factor into the decision last Thursday, allowing one run on four hits over six innings against the Rays. He struck out two. Sanchez’s lone blemish came in the fifth inning, when he served up a leadoff home run to Isaac Paredes that tied the game. Since being called up for his second MLB stint of 2023 in mid-June, Sanchez owns a 2.14 ERA and a 17:2 K:BB across four starts (21 innings).

Sanchez carried double-digit walk rates throughout much of his Minor League career, including this season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, where he walked 11.8 percent of the batters he faced in 49 2/3 innings. But his command has been good through four starts with the Phils since being recalled June 17. Sanchez has issued only two walks in that span, including none to the Rays. He topped out at a modest 93.6 mph, but he kept Tampa Bay guessing as he leaned on his changeup and sinker. Manager Rob Thomson lauded the 26-year-old’s outing as “incredible.”

Only a few Padres have seen Sanchez in a regular-season game. Bogaerts is 0-for-1 off him with a strikeout and Juan Soto 1-for-2 with a K.

Padres vs. Phillies Betting Trends

San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Padres are 1-5 SU in the last 6 games on the road.
The total went over in 5 of San Diego’s last 5 games played on a Frida
Philadelphia are 9-4 SU in the last 13 games.
Phillies are 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego.
The total went under in 9 of Philadelphia’s last 13 games at home.

Padres vs. Phillies Betting Prediction

Phillies 4, Padres 3.

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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.