Texas vs. Baylor 2023 College Football Week 4 Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine • September 21, 2023

Florida State struggled against Boston College last Saturday, which is why the Texas Longhorns moved up a spot from fourth to third on the AP Poll. The 3-ranked Longhorns head to a potential trap game on Saturday when they play the Baylor Bears in Waco. Will Texas continue showing why some have pegged them this season’s National Champion? Or will Baylor put a scare into the Horns and grab a spread line win?

Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears Game Information

On a mission pic.twitter.com/PdWrElCsSj
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) September 20, 2023

When: Saturday, September 23, 2023, 7:30 PM ET
Where: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
TV: ABC
Radio: KVET-FM 98.1 (Texas) // 92.3 FM (Baylor)
Live Stream: WatchESPN
College Football Odds: Texas (-15.5) // Baylor (+15.5)

Why Bet on the Texas Longhorns?

Texas fields one of the nation’s top defenses. The Longhorns allow 276.3 total yards. Opponents average less than 97 rushing yards per game versus the Horns D.

Texas holds opponents to just 14.7 points per game. Alabama scored 24 against Texas, which is one of the reasons the points allowed average is higher than 10. Throw out the Bama game and opponents are averaging exactly 10.

Senior defensive back Jahdae Barron is making NFL scouts take notice. Barron has 15 total tackles and a pick this season. Defensive end Barryn Sorrell is also playing well. Both will be counted on to contain the Baylor offense.

Although quarterback Quinn Ewers isn’t posting stats as impressive as some of his fellow QBs, he’s the reason the Longhorns offense has excelled this season. Ewers has thrown 8 TD passes and for 740 yards.

The Horns boast the best trio of wide receivers in the country. Xavier Worthy should win the Belitnikoff Award if he stays healthy. Jordan Whittingham and Adonai Mitchell can both stretch the field.

Texas averages 150 rushing yards to go along with the 260 per game passing yards. So the Longhorns can also run the ball if required.

Why Bet on the Baylor Bears?

After the 42-31 upset loss to Texas State in their first game, many Baylor fans wondered what happened to the Bears’ D. Head coach Dave Aranda is known as a defensive whiz. Giving up 42 points to a team like Texas State called into question Aranda’s coaching abilities.

But in their next game, the D stood tall when holding 11-ranked Utah to 20 points. Then versus Long Island, the D allowed just 7, which means Baylor’s D is trending in the right direction.

Baylor must battle rival Texas without quarterback Blake Shapen. The starter remains out with an injury. Sawyer Robinson will get another start.

Robinson struggled against Texas State and Utah. But Robinson picked it up versus Long Island, throwing for 113 yards and a TD without an interception. The rushing attack averages 166.3 yards each game. So the key for Baylor will be to get the rushing game going.

Texas vs. Baylor Betting Trends

Texas is 1-3 ATS in their last 4.
Under is 9-1 head-to-head between Baylor and Texas.
Under is 5-0 in Texas’s last 5 road games against Baylor.
Baylor is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5.
Over is 4-1 in Texas’ last 5 away games.
Over is 5-2 in Texas’ last 7 games on the road.

Texas vs. Baylor Expert Betting Predictions

The -15.5 on Texas makes the Longhorns an overlay. Yes, this is a rivalry game, and, yes, the Horns travel to Waco for it, but let’s be real.

Sawyer Robinson completed 45% of his passes versus Long Island. How the heck is Robinson going to come close to moving the football against a Texas defense that contained Alabama and shut down Wyoming?

Baylor’s D has played well in the Bears’ last couple of games. However, Cam Rising was on the bench for Utah when the Bears battled the Utes. Quinn Ewers has yet to throw a pick and he and Worthy dusted Alabama’s defense in Tuscaloosa. Texas rolls to a cover victory.

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