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49ers vs. Chiefs Super Bowl 58 Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine

Super Bowl 58 on Feb. 11 from Las Vegas to conclude the 2023-24 NFL season – the first time Sin City hosts the big game – is a rematch of Super Bowl 54 as the NFC champion San Francisco 49ers face the AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs, who officially will be the home team.

Kansas City leads all-time 8-7 against San Francisco. The teams last played in October 2022 and the Chiefs were 44-23 road winners. Patrick Mahomes threw for 423 yards and three touchdowns to rally Kansas City back from an early 10-0 hole. Right after that deficit, Mahomes led the Chiefs to touchdowns on six of the next seven drives. Jimmy Garoppolo was the starting Niners QB then.

Overall, the Chiefs are 12-8 against the spread this season, while the 49ers are 9-10. Since 2001, underdogs are 11-11 outright and 15-7 ATS in the Super Bowl.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl 58 Game Info

  • When: Sunday, February 11th, 2024. 6:30pm EST.
  • Where: Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
  • TV: CBS
  • Radio: KNBR 680 AM (49ers) // 106.5 The WOLF FM (Chiefs)
  • Live Stream: NFL+
  • NFL Odds: 49ers (-2.5) // Chiefs (+2.5)

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Why Bet on the San Francisco 49ers to Win Super Bowl 58?

For the Niners, it’s a chance to finally break through after advancing to the NFL Championship Game seven times since 2011 without a single Super Bowl title. As great as the franchise has been, the reality is it has been 29 seasons since the 49ers last won a championship.

San Francisco was down 24-7 in the first half Sunday at home in the NFC title game vs. Detroit but rallied for a 34-31 win. Quarterback Brock Purdy completed 20-of-31 passing attempts for 267 yards and a touchdown with a passer rating of 89.0 to go along with five carries for a playoff career-high 48 rushing yards. His passing touchdown marked the fifth of his playoff career.

With the win on Sunday, Purdy, who registered two playoff wins as a rookie, became the fourth quarterback in NFL history to win at least four playoff games in his first two career seasons. In only 26 career starts (including playoffs), Purdy has a record of 21-5. That’s a sparkling .808 winning percentage.

Sunday’s game marked the sixth playoff game of Christian McCaffrey’s career. With 132 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns, McCaffrey became the third player in NFL history to register 50-or-more yards from scrimmage and one-or-more touchdowns in each of their first six career playoff games. McCaffrey has scored one-or-more touchdowns in each of his five playoff games as a member of the 49ers, which is the most consecutive playoff games with one-or-more touchdowns by any player in franchise history.

Defensive lineman Nick Bosa registered three tackles and 2.0 sacks of Lions quarterback Jared Goff, giving him 10.0 sacks in his playoff career, which is the most sacks by a member of the 49ers in the playoffs in franchise history.

Why Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to Win Super Bowl 58?

Mahomes won his first Super Bowl title and game MVP award following the 2018 season, when the Chiefs rallied for a 31-20 win over San Francisco in SB 54 in Miami. Kansas City trailed 20-10 midway through the fourth quarter but Mahomes led the Chiefs to three TDs. He finished throwing for 286 yards with two TDs and two picks. Garoppolo threw for 219 yards with a TD and two picks in the loss. The Chiefs weren’t able to repeat that following season as Super Bowl champion but get another shot here. No team has repeated since New England in the 2004 season.

Mahomes had never played a true road playoff game before this preseason but led a 27-24 victory in Buffalo in the Divisional Round and then a 17-10 upset at top-seeded Baltimore on Sunday in Mahomes’ sixth straight AFC title game. Leading by seven points and facing a third down with just over two minutes remaining in the game, Mahomes found wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a 32-yard completion that moved the chains and sealed the victory.

Mahomes went 30 of 39 for 241 yards and a touchdown while Travis Kelce caught 11 passes for 116 yards and a TD with girlfriend Taylor Swift again in attendance – and presumably she will be at the Super Bowl. Kelce surpassed Jerry Rice’s career record for postseason receptions in the win.

The Chiefs’ defense held Baltimore scoreless on eight of its 10 total possessions, yielding just three points on the Ravens’ five drives during the third and fourth quarter. Additionally, Baltimore – which led the NFL in rushing this season – was held to its lowest rushing total (81 yards) since Week 1 of the 2022 season. The Ravens had two giveaways in the end zone.

“Our defense was outstanding,” said Coach Andy Reid. “We were able to get a lead, and we were able to maintain that lead with great personality, as they’ve done throughout the season.”

Mahomes will become the youngest quarterback to start his fourth Super Bowl, while Reid prepares for his fifth Super Bowl, trailing only Bill Belichick (9) and Don Shula (6) in appearances. Already an all-time great, Mahomes will be vying to become only the fifth quarterback in NFL history to have at least three Super Bowl championships, following Tom Brady (six), Joe Montana (four), Terry Bradshaw (four) and Troy Aikman (three).

49ers vs. Chiefs Super Bowl 58 Betting Trends

  • San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games.
  • 49ers are 9-2 SU in its last 11 games.
  • The total went over in 6 of San Francisco’s last 9 games.
  • Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games.
  • Chiefs are 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
  • The total went under in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games.

49ers vs. Chiefs Super Bowl 58 Expert Prediction

There’s no doubt that the Chiefs have plenty of more experience in winning a Super Bowl, mostly with their recent appearances and their continuous performance. But the 49ers just have that something extra this time around. They can play under pressure and make a hell of a comeback. This looks like it could be a happy ending for San Francisco.

49ers 26, Chiefs 24.

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*All stated odds are subject to change without prior notice.

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