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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies 2023 MLB NLCS Odds and Preview

By Hank Blaine

The 2023 American League Championship Series is a battle between two AL West teams. Defending World Series Champion Houston is the favorite to march to their third straight Fall Classic. But underdog Texas has other plans. Which team is the pick to represent the American League in the 2023 World Series?

A Closer Look at the 2023 MLB National League Championship Series

2023 MLB National League Championship Series Schedule

Odds to Win the 2023 MLB NLCS

Arizona Diamondbacks

Zac Gallen struck out 220 batters during the regular season. The Arizona ace didn’t strike out a lot of Dodgers or Brewers, Gallen struck out 4 in the starts against LAD and Milwaukee but yielded 2 runs in each game.

What it tells us is that Gallen was smart with his pitches. Part of being a great pitcher isn’t just striking batters out but also getting batters to swing at bad pitches and Gallen has become an expert at doing that.

Merrill Kelly has a 0.00 ERA in the postseason. Things get dicey when AZ goes to their third starter, Brandon Pfaadt. Brandon tossed 2.2 innings in a game versus Milwaukee and 4.1 innings against the Dodgers. Leaning on the bullpen in this series could be the same strategy Torey Luvullo employed to get by the Brewers and Dodgers.

Corbin Carroll and Christian Walker lead Arizona’s batting lineup. Walker is the power hitter. Christian belted 33 home runs and knocked in 103. Carroll batted .285, had 161 hits, and posted a .362 on-base percentage.

During the postseason, Carroll is hitting .412. Gabriel Moreno has 3 homes runs. So if Walker gets hot and Moreno stays hot, the D’Backs should continue to belt dingers in this series.

Philadelphia Phillies

Zack Wheeler is the Phillies’ ace. Wheeler is throwing great in the postseason. Philadelphia lost to Atlanta in Wheeler’s start, but he struck out 10 Braves and gave up just 2 hits.

In the start before, Zack struck out 8 and gave up 1 earned run in a 4-1 Philadelphia victory over Miami. When both Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez have their best stuff working, they can post sub 3.00 ERAs.

The Phillies have a monster lineup. Bryce Harper is the leader. The DH has a .538 on-base percentage during the postseason.

Nick Castellanos has hit 4 home runs in the playoffs. Brian Stott leads the team with 7 RBIs and Trea Turner has 12 hits. Turner is also batting .500.

The bottom line is that you can’t pitch around a single player in the Philadelphia Phillies starting lineup. If you try to pitch around Harper, Stott, or Castellanos, or Turner will be there to make you pay.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies 2023 MLB National League Championship Series Analysis

The Phillies have the slightly better starting pitchers. So Philadelphia has an edge when it comes to the mound, but the real reason the Phillies win the series is due to experience and the unbeatable lineup.

Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelley are throwing great. However, the Dodgers have nothing close to Turner, Harper, Castellanos, and Stott. There are also players like Alex Bohm, who bats .274, and catcher J.T. Realmuto, who has hit .273 and has a .970 OPS in the postseason.

If both teams remain hot at the plate, the Phillies will win the series because the slight edge in the rotation and bullpen will put them over the hump. Philadelphia wins in 6.

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READ MORE: Astros vs. Rangers 2023 MLB ALCS Odds and Preview

*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.