Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – August 28th, 2023

September 1 is an important date in Major League Baseball because that’s when big-league rosters expand and teams will call up some of their good young talent for a look in the final month. Here’s a look at two intriguing early week matchups around the majors.

Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week (August 28th, 2023)

The Dodgers have gone a ridiculous 25-4 this month, making a run at MLB's best record, led by MVP candidate Mookie Betts. https://t.co/5jeHkCCuhq

— USA TODAY Sports (@usatodaysports) August 28, 2023

Los Angeles Angels vs. Philadelphia Phillies

• When: Monday, August 28, 2023, 6:40 PM ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• TV: BSW, NBCSP, MLBN
• Radio: AM830 KLAA (Angels) // WIP 94.1 FM (Phillies)
• Live Stream: MLB.tv
• MLB Betting Odds: Angels (+125) // Phillies (-147)

This was to be a homecoming of sorts for Angels star Mike Trout as he grew up a Phillies fan in New Jersey but of course he is back on the injured list and probably done for the season. After coming off the injured list from a broken hand last Tuesday, Trout has found himself right back on the mend after one game: “I wasn’t right,” Trout said of going back on the IL. “I was in some pain, more than tolerable. I thought I could push it, get back out there. I just came in the next day really, really sore. … You saw the swings. They weren’t my A swings. I was just trying to get through it. Probably shouldn’t have. Gave it a shot. It is what it is.”

Shohei Ohtani was diagnosed with a torn UCL in his pitching arm so he will not throw again this season but will continue to hit as a DH – at least for now and until the Angels are eliminated from playoff contention. Ohtani had Tommy John surgery in late 2018 in his pitching arm following his AL Rookie of the Year season. GM Perry Minasian said this injury was to a different part of the elbow and produced a different set of symptoms.

Ohtani is on the verge of his second career season with 45+ HR and 20+ SB (Ohtani had 46 HR & 26 SB in 2021). He would join Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez as the only players with multiple 45 HR/20 SB seasons.

It’s right-hander and trade acquisition Lucas Giolito (7-10, 4.32) on the mound Monday. Giolito took the loss last Tuesday, allowing four runs (one earned) on five hits and two walks over six innings against Cincinnati. He struck out nine. The only run charged against Giolito came on the second batter of the game, as Matt McLain launched a solo homer. Giolito then kept the Reds off the board until the fifth, when a two-out error by Nolan Schanuel brought a pair of runners in to score and allowed Elly De La Cruz to reach and eventually cross home plate himself. Overall, Giolito owns a 4.32 ERA and a 159:53 K:BB across 26 starts (148 innings).

This will mark his second career appearance vs. Phillies. His first came earlier this season for White Sox on April 18 at Guaranteed Rate Field, and pitched 6.0 scoreless, no-hit innings, with one walk and seven strikeouts.

Taijuan Walker (13-5, 4.02) gets the call for the Phillies. Walker did not factor into the decision last Tuesday, allowing three runs (two earned) on six hits and two walks over five innings against the Giants. He struck out seven. In his return to Philadelphia’s rotation, Walker ran into some bad luck in the first inning, allowing an unearned run to score after his defense committed two early errors.

Walker has not faced the Angels this year and is 4-3 with a 5.10 ERA in eight career outings against them.

The Angels lead the all-time series 12-4 vs. the Phillies and had won 12 straight against the Phillies between the 2003-17 seasons, before Philadelphia swept a three-game series last year at Citizens Bank Park from June 3-5, 2022.

MLB Betting Pick: Phillies

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins

• When: Tuesday, August 29, 2023, 6:40 PM ET
• Where: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
• TV: BSSUN, BSFL
• Radio: WDAE 95.3 FM (Rays) // 940 WINZ AM (Marlins)
• Live Stream: MLB.tv
• MLB Betting Odds: TBA

Both Florida teams could make the playoffs this year. The Rays definitely will, either by capturing the AL East or via wild card. The Marlins can’t win the NL East and have some work to do via an NL wild card spot.

Tampa Bay is 189-109 (.634) after the calendar flips to August over the last six seasons (since 2018), the second-best winning pct. in the majors over that span behind the Dodgers (.707). Tampa Bay’s remaining opponents have combined for a .535 winning pct., the highest mark in the AL, ahead of Boston (.533).

Not clear if Tampa Bay will have All-Star first baseman Yandy Diaz. He was hit on the forearm by a pitch Friday and hasn’t started since but no trip to the IL is expected and he’ll probably start Tuesday. Diaz’s AL-leading .326 batting average is the second-highest mark by a qualified hitter through the Rays first 132 games in franchise history, trailing only Jason Bartlett (.338) in 2009. Diaz is attempting to become the first player in Rays history to win an AL batting title. His.403 on-base pct. is also just nine points shy of AL leader LAA Shohei Ohtani (.412) and is the second-best mark through 132 team games in Tampa Bay history, behind Fred McGriff (.413) in 1999. Diaz’s 44 multi-hit games are among the AL leaders.

Aaron Civale (6-3, 2.59) is scheduled on the mound for Tampa Bay. Civale came away with a no-decision last Wednesday in the Rays’ 6-5 extra-inning win over the Rockies, giving up three runs on four hits over five-plus innings. He struck out nine without walking a batter. Civale has a 3.54 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 20:2 K:BB through 20.1 innings in August.

The Marlins traded for closer David Robertson at the deadline but he has lost that job with Miami after blowing his second save in the last three chances in Saturday’s loss to Washington. Since being acquired from the Mets on July 27, Robertson has turned in a 7.20 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over 10 innings while blowing three of seven save opportunities. Tanner Scott is the most likely option to take over as Miami’s closer. Scott’s 26 multi-strikeout appearances are tied for the most in the NL and the fifth-most such outings in baseball.

It’s 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara (6-11, 4.16) on the mound for the Marlins. Alcantara took the loss last Wednesday, giving up four runs on seven hits and three walks over 6.2 innings as the Marlins fell 4-0 to the Padres. He struck out three. Despite the stumble, the right-hander still sports a 3.02 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 50:11 K:BB through 56.2 innings since the All-Star break.

MLB Betting Pick: Marlins

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