Patriots vs. Broncos 2023 NFL Week 16 Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine • December 21, 2023

New England’s season has been over for a few weeks. The Patriots are at 3-11 and have zero shot of making it to the playoffs. The Denver Broncos, though, can still get it done. Sean Payton and Russell Wilson look to get the Broncos back on track when New England takes on Denver at Mile High on Sunday night. The Broncos are a -6 favorite against the Pats. Will New England play well enough to keep the game close? Or will the Broncos prove that the NFL Week 15 loss to the Lions was an anomaly? Keep reading for NFL odds, analysis, and a free pick for New England at Denver.

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Game Information

in the office.#NEvsDEN » https://t.co/51Zb5sD51G pic.twitter.com/MZdiUTaChZ
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 20, 2023

When: Sunday, December 24th, 2023. 8:15pm EST.
Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
TV: NFL Network
Radio: 98.5 The Sports Hub (Patriots) // KOA 850 AM (Broncos)
Live Stream: NFL+
NFL Odds: Patriots (+6) // Broncos (-6)

Why Bet on the New England Patriots?

New England’s defense has played decent football. Although the defense allowed the Dolphins to score 30 and the Chiefs to score 27 in a couple of losses, the D has held it’s own against teams like Pittsburgh, the Chargers, the Giants, and the Colts.

The Steelers scored 18 in a New England win. The Chargers got just 6 while the Colts scored 10. Washington scored 20 in a New England loss.

The defense will play decent football on Sunday. It may not be enough because the Patriots offense is so bad, but the defense will play well.

Bill O’Brien’s career in football might be over. The former Houston Texans head coach and Alabama offensive coordinator was supposed to help the Patriots turn around their mediocre offense.

This season, the offense is worse than it’s been in decades. Not only has O’Brien possibly ended his career, but he’s for sure he’s helped to end Mac Jones’ career. New England scored 6 against the Colts, 7 against the Giants, and 0 versus the Chargers in losses.

New England scored 17 agaisnt Kansas City but that wasn’t nearly enough to beat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. On Sunday, the Patriots face an excellent defense. So the offense may not be as effective as it was versus the Chiefs.

Why Bet on the Denver Broncos?

Outside allowing the Lions to score 42 points in their last, Denver’s defense has played decent football. The Broncos gave up 12 to the Vikings and 20 tot eh Browns in wins.

Houston, behind C.J. Stroud’s arm, scored 22 in a Denver loss. The Broncos held the Chargers to 7 in a 24-7 victory.

For the most part, Denver’s D has played good football since the 5 losses from 6 games to start the season. The defense faces one of the league’s worst offenses on Sunday night. So Denver’s D should have no trouble containing Baily Zappe and the Patriots.

The Broncos have scored 20 or more in their last 5 wins. Denver’s offense has gotten much better as the season has continued. Russell Wilson isn’t posting the stats he did as a young man with the Seahawks, but he’s playing well.

Courtland Sutton has emerged as one of the NFL’s top wide receivers. Sutton has caught 58 passes for 770 yards and 10 touchdowns. The 10 touchdowns catch the eye.

The best thing about Sutton is that his per catch yardage average is 13.3 So every time Sutton catches the ball it’s for a first down if not a touchdown.

Denver’s rushing attack is decent. Backup Samaje Perine averages 4.9 yards per carry. Javonte Williams is a good back. Williams’s per carry average is only 3.7, but it’s been good enough for Javonte to help the Dolphins in their second half surge.

Patriots vs. Broncos Betting Trends

New England is 3-14-1 ATS in the last 18 games.
The Patriots are 1-6 SU in its last 7 games.
The totals went under in 9 of New England’s last 13 games.
Denver is 1-8 ATS in the last 9 games played in week 16.
The Broncos are 6-2 SU in its last 8 games.
The totals went under in 7 of Denver’s last 9 games.

Patriots vs. Broncos Expert Betting Predictions

On paper, visually, and record wise, the Broncos are the much better team. Denver has the makings of a playoff upsetter while the Patriots are already in rebuild mode.

Bill Belichick has one foot out the door, which is one of the reasons the Pats aren’t playing with any urgency. New England will land in Denver and go through the motions while Denver will be fired up to win the game.

6 points aren’t enough. The Broncos win this by at least 10 and we shouldn’t be surprised if Denver beat New England by 20 or more.

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*All stated odds are subject to change without prior notice.