Reds vs. Diamondbacks MLB Odds, Preview and Prediction – August 24, 2023

It’s an important game (and series) in the National League wild card race on Thursday night when the Cincinnati Reds visit the Arizona Diamondbacks, two of the most improved teams in the majors this year, to open a weekend series. It also features NL Rookie of the Year favorites Elly De La Cruz and Corbin Carroll.

Nitrobetting checks out the game in this preview. Get a complete look at the game information, team and player statistics, and the latest MLB odds. We also deliver timely betting trends and predictions that help you secure the best picks.

Reds vs. Diamondbacks Game Information

Can’t stop thinking about this. ‍ pic.twitter.com/peVd83YyyX

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) August 23, 2023

• When: Thursday, August 24, 2023, 9:40 PM ET
• Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
• TV: BSOH, ARID, FS1
• Radio: KMVP FM 98.7 (Reds) // KMOX 1120 AM (Diamondbacks)
• Live Stream: MLB.tv
• MLB Odds: Reds (+145) // Diamondbacks (-172)

READ MORE: Twins vs. Brewers MLB Odds, Preview and Prediction – August 23, 2023

Why bet on the Cincinnati Reds?

Earlier this week, Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz became the fifth rookie in Reds history to have at least 1- homers and 20 steals in a season and he did it in at least 50 fewer games than the other players. The team remains without two other regulars in outfielder Jake Fraley and second baseman and former NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India.

Fraley, on the injured list with a toe fracture, has a chance to return when the Reds return home to face the Chicago Cubs Sept. 1. Fraley is scheduled to work out with Triple-A Louisville over the weekend and then play rehab games next Tuesday and Wednesday. India had his foot examined Tuesday by a specialist, who reported good progress in the plantar fascia area, and India is now expected to start running. India was shut down less than two weeks ago after a setback in the initial stages of rehab. India hit .290/.376/.440 for the season’s first two months, but dating back to Memorial Day weekend he’s struggled to a .211/.292/.376 slash.

The Reds lead the Major Leagues with 38 come-from-behind wins. They have won 19 games in their final plate appearance, including 7 walkoff wins. Cincinnati finished 62-100 last year and is trying to become the first team ever to win a division after losing at least 100 games the season before.

It’s young lefty Brandon Williamson on the mound here. Williamson (4-3) took the loss last Saturday, allowing four runs on nine hits and one walk over 5.2 innings against Toronto. He struck out six. Williamson allowed nine hits, eight of which were singles, including a string of three consecutive run-scoring base knocks in the fourth inning. After a challenging start to his rookie campaign, Williamson has pitched well since the start of July, posting a 3.38 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 47:15 K:BB across 48 innings.

“I think it’s just realizing how to throw to guys,” Williamson said of his recent improvement. “Really, it’s as much mental as it is physical. If you can execute the pitch that you want, then it becomes a chess game of ‘Just how do you move the pieces?’ And I feel like that has been a big step since I got up here.”

On July 22, Williamson faced the Diamondbacks in Cincinnati and allowed one run and three hits over six innings in a victory. Williamson retired the first nine batters before walking Marte to begin the fourth. He didn’t allow a hit until Evan Longoria’s leadoff double in the fifth.

“I got ahead a lot,” Williamson said then. “That’s the name of the game. I don’t want to say I was oblivious to the hitters (but) I just threw my pitches and let it work.”

Why bet on the Arizona Diamondbacks?

Arizona All-Star Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is red hot this month as has hit safely in 15 of 18 games in August and is slashing .313/.357/.547. He endured a 38-game stretch between June and July in which he batted .160/.208/.293. Third baseman/DH Evan Longoria was activated off a long IL stint earlier this week.

NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll, who 23 earlier this week, rounded out his age 22 season with the sixth-best power-speed number (26.8) on Baseball Reference’s Top 10 Age 22 Batting Leaders, the highest by a player since Fernando Tatis Jr. of San Diego in 2021 (31.3). Carroll is only 1 of 10 MLB rookies to steal 30+ bases at age 22 or younger since 1990.

It’s right-hander Merrill Kelly on the mound. Kelly (10-5) picked up the win in the first game of last Saturday’s doubleheader against the Padres, giving up three runs on five hits and four walks over 5.1 innings. He struck out three. Kelly only had 56 strikes among his 102 pitches before exiting, but Kelly got enough run support to collect his first win since June 19. It was his worst outing of the second half — since returning from a calf injury in late July, he’s posted a 2.88 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 36:12 K:BB through 34.1 innings. Kelly hasn’t faced the Reds this year.

Since 2021, the Diamondbacks are 8-8 vs. Reds and 17-17 since 2017. At home since 2021, the D-backs are 3-3 vs. the Reds.

Reds vs. Diamondbacks Betting Trends

• Cincinnati is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
• Reds are 5-1 SU in the last 6 games against Arizona.
• The total went under in 13 of Cincinnati’s last 18 games.
• Arizona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.
• Arizona are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.
• The total went over in 4 of Arizona’s last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati.

Reds vs. Diamondbacks Betting Prediction

Diamondbacks 4, Reds 3.

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