Twins vs. Brewers MLB Odds, Preview and Prediction – August 23, 2023

By Hank Blaine • August 23, 2023

It’s a matchup of Central Division leaders on Wednesday and looks to be a terrific pitchers’ duel as Kenta Maeda and the Twins visit Corbin Burnes and the Brewers. Possible that it’s a World Series preview as well but not very likely. Milwaukee might get there.

Nitrobetting checks out the game in this preview. Get a complete look at the game information, team and player statistics, and the latest MLB odds. We also deliver timely betting trends and predictions that help you secure the best picks.

Twins vs. Brewers Game Information

Cooked up a dub#ThisIsMyCrew | @UWCreditUnion pic.twitter.com/j13dLIUzMf
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) August 23, 2023

When: Wednesday, August 23, 2023, 2:10 PM ET
Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
TV: BSNO, BSWI
Radio: 102.9 The Wolf (Twins) // KMOX 1120 AM (Brewers)
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Odds: Twins (+118) // Brewers (-139)

Why bet on the Minnesota Twins?

The Twins are still banged up with the likes of Byron Buxton, Alex Kiriloff and Willi Castro on the injured list. Buxton (hamstring) could play center field once he’s deemed ready to return from the 10-day injured list. Buxton has exclusively served as the Twins’ designated hitter this season in an effort to keep him healthy, but it hasn’t worked as he has still landed on the IL twice. His numbers at the plate (.207/.294/.438) have taken a considerable hit.

It’s Kenta Maeda (3-7, 4.13 ERA) on the hill for the Twins. Maeda did not factor into the decision last Wednesday, allowing three runs on seven hits and one walk over four innings against the Tigers. He struck out six. Maeda struck out four batters over the first two innings and appeared to be on track for his third quality start in a row.

However, the right-hander ran into trouble in the top of the third after allowing a leadoff single to Akil Baddoo, which would be followed by home runs from Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson in two of the next three at-bats. It marked the first time Maeda permitted two-or-more home runs since August 3, 2021 at Cincinnati (3 HR).

Maeda had gone at least five innings in each of his previous five starts coming in, and the seven hits allowed Wednesday were the most he’s given up since April 26. He still has a 2.81 ERA through three starts this month. Maeda is facing the Brewers for the ninth time in his career. He last did on April 1, 2021 at American Family Field, when he did not factor into the 6-5 Twins’ defeat after pitching 4.1 innings and allowing two runs (1 ER) on six hits with two walks and five strikeouts.

Maeda is 3-2, 2.54 ERA (46.0 IP, 13 ER) with 18 walks and 54 strikeouts in his eight previous starts against the Brewers. He is 1-2, 2.2 ERA (16.0 IP, 4 ER) with two walks and 20 strikeouts in three Interleague starts this season.

Minnesota’s Max Kepler is hitting .333 (11-for-33) with three doubles, one triple, five RBI, four walks and an .890 OPS in his last 10 games vs. the Brewers. Kepler has six home runs against NL opponents this season. He has 21 career interleague home runs, tied with Justin Morneau for fourth most in club history, trailing Torii Hunter (33), Eddie Rosario (23) and Joe Mauer (22).

Milwaukee first baseman 1B Rowdy Tellez, who had been sidelined since July 4 because of right forearm inflammation, was activated on Saturday. DH Jesse Winker (back spasms) began a rehab assignment on Aug. 15.

Over his last 17 games, Brewers outfielder Tyrone Taylor is batting .326 (15-for-46) with 3 HR and 12 RBI. Trade acquisition Mark Canha has produced an RBI in 7 of his last 10 games. He is batting .281 (9-for-32, 1 HR) with a .351 OBP/.531 SLG/.883 OPS during this particular stretch. Christian Yelich is 14 hits away from 1,500 for his Major League career. Carlos Santana needs 4 HR for 300 career. His 296 career HR are 10th in MLB history by switch-hitters.

Why bet on the Milwaukee Brewers?

The Brewers are 33-27 at home as of Tuesday, going 10-7-2 in series play. The team went 46-35 at home last season, going 15-8-4 in series play.

It’s ace Corbin Burnes (9-6, 3.43 ERA) on the mound. Burnes allowed two hits and two walks while striking out nine batters over seven innings in a no-decision against the Dodgers last Thursday. Burnes dominated one of the league’s top offenses, but Los Angeles starter Lance Lynn matched him with seven scoreless frames of his own. Though Burnes had to settle for a no-decision, this was one of his best outings of the campaign and a strong bounce-back from his previous start, when he gave up five runs over 5.2 innings against the White Sox.

The team is 14-11 in Burnes’ start this year and he has 17 quality starts. Opponents are batting .193 (106-for-549, 16hr) off him. After pitching to a pedestrian 3.94 ERA with a 23.1% strikeout rate in eighteen starts in the first half, Burnes has posted a 2.63 ERA and 29.3% strikeout rate in six starts since the All-Star break. He’s using his curveball more against left-handed batters and has modified his slider grip to give it more movement, which better separates it from his cutter and curveball.

Burnes has gone 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA over five career games against Minnesota spanning 24.1 innings. He received no decision this season on 6/13 at Target Field (6ip, 7h, 3r, 3er, 1bb, 8k, 1hr), leaving the game with a 5-3 lead.

Twins vs. Brewers Betting Trends

Minnesota is 2-5 SU in the last 7 games on the road.
Twins are 8-3 SU in its last 11 games against an opponent in the National League.
The total went over in 7 of Minnesota’s last 8 games when playing on the road against Milwauke
Milwaukee are 4-1 SU in the last 5 games.
Milwaukee are 8-0 SU in its last 8 games against an opponent in the American League.
The total went over in 4 of Milwaukee’s last 5 games against Minnesota.

Twins vs. Brewers Betting Prediction

Brewers 4, Twins 3.

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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.