Steelers vs. Bills 2024 NFL Wild Card Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine • January 9, 2024

Brutally cold weather is on tap for Kansas City on Saturday night as the AFC West champion Chiefs begin defense of their latest Super Bowl title on the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend by hosting the Miami Dolphins, with Kansas City as just more than a field goal favorite.

Here is the weather forecast for Sunday in Buffalo: Cloudy with gusty winds. High 23F. Winds WSW at 20 to 30 mph.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills 2024 NFL Wild Card Game Information

See yinz Sunday #HereWeGo

: https://t.co/v0NNveRiSn | @OurFordStore pic.twitter.com/amcsEIbaQl
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) January 8, 2024

When: Sunday, January 14th, 2024. 1:00pm EST.
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
TV: CBS
Radio: WDVE-FM 102.5 (Steelers) // WGR 550 AM (Bills)
Live Stream: NFL+
NFL Odds: Steelers (+10) // Bills (-10)

Why Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers?

Pittsburgh had to win last Saturday at AFC top-seeded Baltimore and get help to get into the playoffs and that’s what happened. The Ravens rested many starters and lost 17-10, the third straight win for Pittsburgh – all since third-stringer Mason Rudolph took over at quarterback, and he’ll start this one even though starter Kenny Pickett is now healthy. Rudolph completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions in the win. Rudolph and the Steelers were playing in rainy conditions in Baltimore, which led to a conservative offensive game plan. Rudolph had a 71-yard touchdown pass to Diontae Johnson — a play that put Pittsburgh ahead for good.

Najee Harris rushed the ball 26 times for 112 yards and a touchdown while catching five passes for 21 yards. Harris was called upon to carry a particularly heavy workload because of weather and he’s now combined to record 53 rushing attempts across his last two games. He’s topped 100 rushing yards in each.

The win was very costly, however, as NFL sack champion TJ Watt (19 sacks) injured his MCL and the former Defensive Player of the Year – he may win it again this season — will not play in Buffalo. Watt hurt his left knee late in the third quarter in a collision with teammate Montravius Adams. It’s being called a Grade 2 sprain, which is good news but still at least a multi-week injury. Watt is the first NFL player to lead the league in sacks in three separate seasons so it’s a massive loss.

All three of the Steelers’ free agency additions at inside linebacker have missed time because of significant injuries, including season-ending injuries to Kwon Alexander (Achilles) and Cole Holcomb (knee), which has the Steelers leaning on three players who were either retired or on practice squads for significant snaps. And All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick suffered a knee injury against the Colts in Week 15 and hasn’t played or practiced since.

Pittsburgh still had to get some help on Sunday for a wild card spot and got it when Jacksonville was upset at Tennessee. The Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since 2016.

“Let us be dangerous. We have a formula that’s working right now,” Steelers defensive tackle Cam Heyward said. “Hopefully, we can get some guys back in the fold and we’re not going to discount ourselves. We know we got work to do and looking forward to it.”

Why Bet on the Buffalo Bills?

Buffalo played for the AFC East title on Sunday night in Miami – had the Bills lost, they would have been a wild card team and the Dolphins the division winner and Buffalo would have had to play at the Dolphins again this week.

The Bills beat the Dolphins 21-14 for a fifth straight win. QB Allen completed 30 of 38 pass attempts for 359 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions while rushing 15 times for 67 yards and losing a fumble. Allen’s two picks brought his season total up to 18 over 17 starts. But he finished with 4,306 yards and 29 touchdowns as a passer in addition to 111 attempts for 524 yards and an attention-grabbing 15 touchdowns as a rusher (surpassing his previous high of seven).

“We were 6-6. We knew what was in front of us, had a lot of internal talks, trusted the guys in this locker room,” Allen said on the team’s mentality following their Week 13 bye.

No. 2 wideout Gabe Davis left in the first half with a sprained PCL, but he might be able to play here. Davis had 45 catches for 746 yards and seven TDs this season. After Davis left Sunday, Khalil Shakir and Trent Sherfield stepped up. Shakir had six catches and a team-high 105 receiving yards. Sherfield had three grabs for 24 yards with a touchdown.

Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defense is playing well and getting healthy at the right time with starting defensive tackle DaQuan Jones back from injured reserve.

The Bills have made it to the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season. It’s the second-longest playoff streak in franchise history (six seasons from 1988-1993). The Steelers didn’t play the Bills this season. It will mark the fourth time these teams have met in the playoffs and the first time since January 6, 1996 – a Pittsburgh win 41-20. Buffalo defeated the Steelers 24-3 on January 9, 1993. The Bills lost 32-14 on December 22, 1974 in Pittsburgh. This will be their first postseason meeting in Buffalo. The Bills are 4-1 at Highmark Stadium in the playoffs since 2017.

Steelers vs. Bills Betting Trends

Pittsburgh is 13-7 ATS in the last 20 games.
The Steelers are 13-7 SU in its last 20 games.
The totals went over in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games.
Buffalo is 4-9 ATS in the last 13 games.
The Bills are 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The totals went under in 7 of Buffalo’s last 10 games.

Steelers vs. Bills Expert Betting Predictions

Bills 20, Steelers 13.

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*All stated odds are subject to change without prior notice.