Super Bowl LVII Betting Trends & Stats
There are some Super Bowl props we shouldn’t consider betting. For example, betting on the color of Gatorade that ends up on the winning coach’s noggin is silly. So is betting on which team wins the coin toss. But other props, and they’re almost all player props, can lead to decent payouts. Check out four Kansas City props and four Eagles props that you should put on your betting radar.
Trends & Stats to Study Before Betting on Super Bowl LVII
Signs the Super Bowl is getting closer #SBLVII pic.twitter.com/igRmG2Gt0l
— NFL (@NFL) February 1, 2023
READ MORE: Best Super Bowl LVII Props
Top Four Trends to Keep in Mind
Chiefs are 1-5 ATS versus a team with a winning record
This is a scary stat. But before jumping all over the Eagles, it’s important to note that Kansas City heads into the Super Bowl with a 3-2 ATS record in their final 5 games.
The record against the spread could have been 4-1 in favor of KC if Mahomes hadn’t suffered a high-ankle sprain in the 27-20 victory over the Jaguars. That doesn’t mean this trend is meaningless.
It means that if you are going to use this trend, make sure to dig deeper.
Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win
The same goes for this trend. The Chiefs covered against the Bengals, which suggests KC won’t cover versus the Eagles.
But in KC’s 19 games this season, the Chiefs went off the favorite in 17 of them. Kansas City went off a favorite of 6 points or more in 11 of the 19.
The Chiefs were double-digit chalks, 10 points or more, in 6-of-19. On Feb. 12, KC could go off the underdog. So, yes, the trend is correct, but we must think harder before using the trend to help us decide who to back.
Eagles are 7-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record
3 of the Eagles 7 victories against teams with winning records were against the New York Giants.
One other team the Eagles beat against the spread with a winning record was San Francisco in the NFC Conference Championship. Still another team were the Dallas Cowboys. So three teams make up 5 of the 7 ATS victories versus teams with winning records, which means this isn’t a ringing endorsement trend.
Philadelphia is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game
The Eagles boast the leagues top passing defense, which is why this trend could be important. What the trend implies is that Philadelphia’s pass defense bounces, or plays poorly, after a fantastic performance.
Philadelphia dominated Josh Johnson after knocking out Brock Purdy in the NFC title game. Now, the Eagles must face the best quarterback in the league. Definitely keep this trend in mind when handicapping Super Bowl 57.
Top Four Stats to Keep in Mind
Kansas City averages 297.8 passing yards per game // Philadelphia allows 179.8 passing yards per game
So lets think about the final trend we discussed. The Eagles bounce after holding an opponent’s passing attack to 150 yards or less. In the very next game, Philadelphia faces the best passing attack in the NFL.
So if the trend holds, we should put a checkmark into Kansas City’s column. You must decide on your own if the trend will hold.
Kansas City averages 115.9 rushing yards per game // Philadelphia allows 121.6 rushing yards per game
The stats are important because they contrast a KC strength against a Philly weakness. Right now, Philadelphia is the favorite. So what we want to do is find reasons to back Kansas City. The rushing stats above give us those contrarian reasons.
That doesn’t mean that at the end we bet on Kansas City. What it means is that if we like Philly, we must come up with reasons to back the Eagles that counter the above stats.
Using stats and trends to finding winning plays is part logic and part art. The bottom line when it comes to Super Bowl 57 is that if you see a trend or stat that pops out at you, make sure to dig as deep as possible before basing your bet on that trend or stat.
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