Super Bowl LV Betting Trends and Stats to Study

By Hank Blaine • January 28, 2021

We’re less than two weeks away from Super Bowl LV and many players are already placing their bets. It’s not a bad idea to get the head start with the NFL odds, but you shouldn’t rush into to it too fast, no matter what the odds are at the time.

Before placing your Super Bowl picks, we’ll be taking a look at the betting stats and trends to keep in mind when placing your bets for Super Bowl LV. And don’t forget to check out our Super Bowl LV betting preview as well!

Super Bowl LV Game Information

When: Sunday, February 7th, 2021 | 6:30 PM ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
TV: CBS / ESPN Deportes (Spanish)
Radio: Westwood One Sports
Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
Super Bowl LV Odds: Chiefs -3 / -164 / O/U line: 54

Super Bowl Betting History

One of the things to take into consideration is that the point-spread doesn’t come into play that much. In the vast history of Super Bowl betting, the favorite has won straight up, but couldn’t cover the spread a total of six times to date. Let’s take a closer look at the scores that couldn’t cover the spread.

Super Bowl XLIII (2009) / Pittsburgh (-7) 29 vs. Arizona 23
Super Bowl XXXIX (2005) / New England (-7) 24 vs. Philadelphia 21
Super Bowl XXXVIII(2004) / New England (-7) 32 vs. Carolina 29
Super Bowl XXX(1996) / Dallas (-13.5) 27 vs. Pittsburgh 17
Super Bowl XXIII (1989) / San Francisco (-7) 20 vs. Cincinnati 16
Super Bowl X (1976) / Pittsburgh (-7) 29 vs. Dallas 17

In recent Super Bowl betting history, Super Bowl XLIX had the line as Pick’em between the Patriots and the Seahawks, which is odd since it rarely or never happens.

Performance on the Road

If we look at the big picture of what Super Bowl is, it’s basically a road game. There have been occasions where one of the teams that make it to Super Bowl plays in their home regions instead of stadiums. Such is the case for the 49ers winning Super Bowl XIX in Stanford Stadium, rather than Candlestick Park. The other team is the LA Rams, who played at Super Bowl XIV at the Rose Bowl, rather than the Los Angeles Coliseum. For the 2020 NFL season, it will be the first time a team will play at their home stadium for a Super Bowl. This case being the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Looking closer at the performance of both teams this season, the Buccaneers have a 9-2 record on the road. This is including their recent playoff wins as well. The two losses they have were by a small margin of points. So, we can definitely say the Bucs have what it takes on the road. They were able to cover the spread four out of those eight games on the road. In the post season, they were only able to cover the spread against the Saints.

For the Chiefs, their performance on the road is basically the same as the Bucs. Of the eight games on the road, they were able to cover the spread four times. Both teams have had a similar pathway on the road this season. But experience has its advantage and Brady has plenty of that.

The Rule of the Favorite

Looking at recent Super Bowl stats, the favorites usually take the win in the NFL odds. But, of course, it’s not a guarantee. The statistics indicate the favorite has a 36-17 SU record, and is 29-20-2 Against the Spread. Even though these stats aren’t going to define the final result, it does give an idea on how the NFL odds are usually balanced out before game time.

Postseason Performance

One thing is to perform during the regular season, but the pressure of the playoffs lurks on some players from time to time. Even more so for Quarterbacks. And we’ll having a battle of the old versus new.

When looking a Tom Brady’s performance during the postseason, the regular season is usually pretty good. But his playoff performances in the past increase a lot. This is his 10th Super Bowl, winning 6 of those in the process. We definitely won’t see Brady having difficulties in making the plays, as long as the teams keeps him well covered.

For Patrick Mahomes, this is his second Super Bowl appearance and has a 6-1 postseason. He also is leads with the highest passer rating in NFL history with 109.8. And of course, age will become a huge factor for him as well. The Chiefs almost took a big scare, when Mahomes was injured against the Brown and wasn’t even sure he would be in the AFC Championship game. But fate was on his side and was able to take team once again to defend the Lombardi Trophy. There’s so much pressure on Mahomes right now and if he’s able to beat Brady, he will cement his legacy for years to come.

Final Super Bowl LV Predictions

The current stats and trends have both teams pretty much on the same level of performance, although the Bucs have had a tougher road along the way. And both team stories are just perfect to watch the game.

There have been teams winning the title two years in a row and I see that happening for the Chiefs. I won’t say that it would crazy to see Brady win another ring with a different team, but will the team be able to stand up like they did during the season? We’ll found out on February 7th.

Check out our Football betting guides and sports betting news sections for more previews and insights.

Remember to always have fun with all the action. Feel free to visit our online BTC Sportsbook with all the latest NFL odds.